{
  "dataset": {
    "name": "Strategic Signal — Exceptional Capital Manager Evidence",
    "version": "0.3.1",
    "published_on": "2026-09-20",
    "updated_on": "2026-09-20",
    "source_run": "decade validation run; quarter-clustered evidence methodology",
    "research_window_start": "2016-01-01",
    "latest_completed_report_period": "2026-06-30",
    "benchmark": "SPY adjusted close",
    "public_entry_rule": "First trading close strictly after SEC filing date",
    "independent_observation_unit": "Manager filing quarter",
    "qualified_manager_count": 3
  },
  "managers": [
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-DUQUESNE",
      "name": "Duquesne Family Office LLC",
      "status": "candidate",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 1334,
      "completed_12m_events": 928,
      "distinct_issuers": 235,
      "price_coverage_pct": 79,
      "oos_evidence_score": 60.4,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 45.9,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 77.1,
        "ADD": 84.9,
        "REDUCE": 50.9,
        "EXIT": 22.3
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 82.9,
        "distribution": 28.5
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [
        "coverage"
      ],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-BERKSHIRE",
      "name": "Berkshire Hathaway Inc",
      "status": "watch",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 114,
      "completed_12m_events": 78,
      "distinct_issuers": 34,
      "price_coverage_pct": 81.3,
      "oos_evidence_score": 40.8,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 40.5,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 12,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 41.2,
        "ADD": null,
        "REDUCE": 48.5,
        "EXIT": null
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 41.4,
        "distribution": 48.5
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [],
      "failed_score_gates": [
        "overall",
        "six_month",
        "twelve_month",
        "recent_overall",
        "recent_twelve_month"
      ]
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-APPALOOSA",
      "name": "Appaloosa LP",
      "status": "qualified",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 756,
      "completed_12m_events": 548,
      "distinct_issuers": 129,
      "price_coverage_pct": 81.5,
      "oos_evidence_score": 67.7,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 68.9,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 73,
        "ADD": 74.7,
        "REDUCE": 40.2,
        "EXIT": 36.6
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 82.8,
        "distribution": 39
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-BAUPOST",
      "name": "Baupost Group LLC/MA",
      "status": "candidate",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 478,
      "completed_12m_events": 250,
      "distinct_issuers": 72,
      "price_coverage_pct": 57.5,
      "oos_evidence_score": 65.4,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 64.4,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 30.4,
        "ADD": 50.2,
        "REDUCE": 67.4,
        "EXIT": 59.9
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 49.2,
        "distribution": 66.3
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [
        "coverage"
      ],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-PERSHING",
      "name": "Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.",
      "status": "candidate",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10,
      "notable_events_total": 94,
      "completed_12m_events": 66,
      "distinct_issuers": 25,
      "price_coverage_pct": 77.6,
      "oos_evidence_score": 43.7,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 28.7,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 13,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 21,
        "ADD": null,
        "REDUCE": null,
        "EXIT": null
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 25.8,
        "distribution": 53.5
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [
        "coverage"
      ],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-COATUE",
      "name": "Coatue Management LLC",
      "status": "qualified",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 814,
      "completed_12m_events": 626,
      "distinct_issuers": 141,
      "price_coverage_pct": 82.9,
      "oos_evidence_score": 69.6,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 61.6,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 44.9,
        "ADD": 78.3,
        "REDUCE": 52.9,
        "EXIT": 68.3
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 75.3,
        "distribution": 59.3
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-VIKING",
      "name": "Viking Global Investors LP",
      "status": "watch",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 1495,
      "completed_12m_events": 1073,
      "distinct_issuers": 228,
      "price_coverage_pct": 80.7,
      "oos_evidence_score": 60.9,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 54.9,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 52.5,
        "ADD": 33.5,
        "REDUCE": 69.2,
        "EXIT": 58.6
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 33.6,
        "distribution": 71.1
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [],
      "failed_score_gates": [
        "recent_overall",
        "recent_twelve_month"
      ]
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-LONEPINE",
      "name": "Lone Pine Capital LLC",
      "status": "qualified",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 786,
      "completed_12m_events": 573,
      "distinct_issuers": 136,
      "price_coverage_pct": 82.7,
      "oos_evidence_score": 68.4,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 74.5,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 56.3,
        "ADD": 33.4,
        "REDUCE": 58.3,
        "EXIT": 42.7
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 65,
        "distribution": 51.6
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    },
    {
      "manager_id": "ECM-TIGER",
      "name": "Tiger Global Management LLC",
      "status": "candidate",
      "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false,
      "history_years": 10.25,
      "notable_events_total": 543,
      "completed_12m_events": 375,
      "distinct_issuers": 93,
      "price_coverage_pct": 75,
      "oos_evidence_score": 73.2,
      "recent_six_quarter_score": 59.6,
      "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15,
      "event_type_scores": {
        "NEW": 62.6,
        "ADD": 67.8,
        "REDUCE": 84.7,
        "EXIT": 44.1
      },
      "direction_scores": {
        "accumulation": 62.1,
        "distribution": 79.5
      },
      "failed_data_gates": [
        "coverage"
      ],
      "failed_score_gates": []
    }
  ]
}
