{ "dataset": { "name": "Strategic Signal — Exceptional Capital Manager Evidence", "version": "0.3.1", "published_on": "2026-09-20", "updated_on": "2026-09-20", "status": "validated_manager_evidence", "evidence_window": "SEC Form 13F filing history from 2016 through Q2 2026; outcomes measured from the first trading close strictly after each public filing date.", "qualified_manager_count": 3, "watch_manager_count": 2, "candidate_manager_count": 4, "qualification_notice": "Qualified means the manager's post-filing signal history cleared Strategic Signal's published data, out-of-sample, and recent-stability gates. It is not a claim about overall investment skill, future returns, or the manager's complete portfolio." }, "managers": [ { "manager_id": "ECM-DUQUESNE", "name": "Duquesne Family Office LLC", "sec_cik": "0001536411", "form_13f_file_number": "028-14660", "status": "candidate", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1536411&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 1334, "completed_12m_events": 928, "distinct_issuers": 235, "price_coverage_pct": 79, "oos_evidence_score": 60.4, "recent_six_quarter_score": 45.9, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 77.1, "ADD": 84.9, "REDUCE": 50.9, "EXIT": 22.3 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 82.9, "distribution": 28.5 }, "failed_data_gates": [ "coverage" ], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-BERKSHIRE", "name": "Berkshire Hathaway Inc", "sec_cik": "0001067983", "form_13f_file_number": "028-04545", "status": "watch", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1067983&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 114, "completed_12m_events": 78, "distinct_issuers": 34, "price_coverage_pct": 81.3, "oos_evidence_score": 40.8, "recent_six_quarter_score": 40.5, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 12, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 41.2, "ADD": null, "REDUCE": 48.5, "EXIT": null }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 41.4, "distribution": 48.5 }, "failed_data_gates": [], "failed_score_gates": [ "overall", "six_month", "twelve_month", "recent_overall", "recent_twelve_month" ] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-APPALOOSA", "name": "Appaloosa LP", "sec_cik": "0001656456", "form_13f_file_number": "028-17453", "status": "qualified", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1656456&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 756, "completed_12m_events": 548, "distinct_issuers": 129, "price_coverage_pct": 81.5, "oos_evidence_score": 67.7, "recent_six_quarter_score": 68.9, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 73, "ADD": 74.7, "REDUCE": 40.2, "EXIT": 36.6 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 82.8, "distribution": 39 }, "failed_data_gates": [], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-BAUPOST", "name": "Baupost Group LLC/MA", "sec_cik": "0001061768", "form_13f_file_number": "028-07120", "status": "candidate", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1061768&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 478, "completed_12m_events": 250, "distinct_issuers": 72, "price_coverage_pct": 57.5, "oos_evidence_score": 65.4, "recent_six_quarter_score": 64.4, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 30.4, "ADD": 50.2, "REDUCE": 67.4, "EXIT": 59.9 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 49.2, "distribution": 66.3 }, "failed_data_gates": [ "coverage" ], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-PERSHING", "name": "Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.", "sec_cik": "0001336528", "form_13f_file_number": "028-11694", "status": "candidate", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1336528&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10, "notable_events_total": 94, "completed_12m_events": 66, "distinct_issuers": 25, "price_coverage_pct": 77.6, "oos_evidence_score": 43.7, "recent_six_quarter_score": 28.7, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 13, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 21, "ADD": null, "REDUCE": null, "EXIT": null }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 25.8, "distribution": 53.5 }, "failed_data_gates": [ "coverage" ], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-COATUE", "name": "Coatue Management LLC", "sec_cik": "0001135730", "form_13f_file_number": "028-06391", "status": "qualified", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1135730&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 814, "completed_12m_events": 626, "distinct_issuers": 141, "price_coverage_pct": 82.9, "oos_evidence_score": 69.6, "recent_six_quarter_score": 61.6, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 44.9, "ADD": 78.3, "REDUCE": 52.9, "EXIT": 68.3 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 75.3, "distribution": 59.3 }, "failed_data_gates": [], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-VIKING", "name": "Viking Global Investors LP", "sec_cik": "0001103804", "form_13f_file_number": "028-05515", "status": "watch", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1103804&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 1495, "completed_12m_events": 1073, "distinct_issuers": 228, "price_coverage_pct": 80.7, "oos_evidence_score": 60.9, "recent_six_quarter_score": 54.9, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 52.5, "ADD": 33.5, "REDUCE": 69.2, "EXIT": 58.6 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 33.6, "distribution": 71.1 }, "failed_data_gates": [], "failed_score_gates": [ "recent_overall", "recent_twelve_month" ] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-LONEPINE", "name": "Lone Pine Capital LLC", "sec_cik": "0001061165", "form_13f_file_number": "028-11152", "status": "qualified", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1061165&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": true, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 786, "completed_12m_events": 573, "distinct_issuers": 136, "price_coverage_pct": 82.7, "oos_evidence_score": 68.4, "recent_six_quarter_score": 74.5, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 56.3, "ADD": 33.4, "REDUCE": 58.3, "EXIT": 42.7 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 65, "distribution": 51.6 }, "failed_data_gates": [], "failed_score_gates": [] } }, { "manager_id": "ECM-TIGER", "name": "Tiger Global Management LLC", "sec_cik": "0001167483", "form_13f_file_number": "028-10100", "status": "candidate", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1167483&owner=exclude&action=getcompany", "eligible_for_signal_scoring": false, "evidence_summary": { "history_years": 10.25, "notable_events_total": 543, "completed_12m_events": 375, "distinct_issuers": 93, "price_coverage_pct": 75, "oos_evidence_score": 73.2, "recent_six_quarter_score": 59.6, "oos_completed_filing_quarters": 15, "event_type_scores": { "NEW": 62.6, "ADD": 67.8, "REDUCE": 84.7, "EXIT": 44.1 }, "direction_scores": { "accumulation": 62.1, "distribution": 79.5 }, "failed_data_gates": [ "coverage" ], "failed_score_gates": [] } } ] }